Hiilihysteria kiihtyy

Kyllä luonnollisilla muutoksilla on pääasiassa selitetty pientä muutosta emäksisyydessä happamaan suuntaan.

”In conclusion, our analysis clearly indicates that ocean pH is influenced by oceanographic factors modulated by dominant ocean-climate modes i.e. ENSO and PDO in the Pacific and NAO and AMO in the Atlantic oceans.”

”To the best of our knowledge, total eight δ11B records from the Pacific and two from the Atlantic Oceans are available in published literatures. The compilations of these records show large variability; range between 26.27–20.82‰ which corresponds to pH range 8.40–7.63 respectively. Our investigation of pH records from the Pacific ocean based on principal component analysis (PCA) reveals that atmospheric CO2 can explains maximum up to ~26% of the total pH variability during 1950–2004AD, followed by the ocean-climate oscillations (i.e. ENSO and PDO) driven oceanographic factors up to ~17%. The remaining large variability (~57%) could not be explained by above forcing factors and hence we invoke possible influence of metabolic processes of corals and/or changes in micro-environments within the reefs which are often neglected in interpreting paleo-pH records.”/em>

”Theoretical pH records show monotonic decreasing trend since ~ 1850 AD which is consistent with that of atmospheric CO2 forcing since the beginning of the industrial era (Fig. 3). Variability in δ11B derived pH records is larger than theoretical pH in case of Pacific Ocean, in of Atlantic they mostly fall within the error where as case envelops (Fig. 3). This clearly indicates that contribution of atmospheric CO2 and physical parameters (SST and SSS) to the total pH variability are much lower compared to other factors in the coral reef environments which are highly variable from one reef to another in the Pacific. However, it is noteworthy to mention that in spite of lower contribution of atmospheric CO2 to pH, it shows discernable decreasing trend in most of the records since ~1850 AD.”

https://www.biogeosciences-discuss.net/bg-2018-438/bg-2018-438.pdf

”In conclusion, our analysis clearly indicates that ocean pH is influenced by oceanographic factors modulated by dominant ocean-climate modes i.e. ENSO and PDO in the Pacific and NAO and AMO in the Atlantic oceans.”

”Our investigations based on principal component analysis of the δ11B derived pH records reveals ~26% and ~17% variability in the Pacific ocean pH are explained by atmospheric CO2 and Pacific ocean-climate oscillations respectively. Remaining large unexplained variability (57%) might be related to metabolic processes and micro-environmental changes of the corals reefs. Therefore, we highlight the need for more detailed investigation of boron isotope fractions and its relations to specific metabolic processes and micro-environmental changes based on laboratory experiments and field studies in the corals reefs.”

”iv. We have estimated pH reduction in the Pacific Ocean by 0.5 unit due to anthropogenic CO2 forcing; rise of atmospheric CO2 from 310 to 380 ppm during 1950 – 2004.”

”v. ENSO driven pH variability shows large increase during 1980 – 2004 compared to previous decades (1950 – 1980). This observation is consistent with the reported global coral bleaching events. This indicates thermal stress associated with extreme ENSO events could be responsible for coral bleaching events.”

”vi. Considering the model based prediction of the extreme events associated with ENSO in the backdrop of the increasing global warming, coral bleaching events are likely to increase in future decades/centuries.”